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# USD/JPY surge: are new interventions on the horizon?
- URL: https://www.natglobalmarkets.com/usd-jpy-surge-are-new-interventions-on-the-horizon/
- Published: 2026-09-18T15:31:05.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-18T15:32:22.000Z
- Author: Research Team
- Tags: Currencies

The sharp rally in the USD/JPY pair following the BoJ meeting and yesterday's Federal Reserve rate decision indicates a substantial capital flow into carry trades against the yen. An analysis of the yen index (SFA Index) shows that while USD/JPY is already approaching the "red zone," the yen itself still has room to depreciate before hitting the levels that triggered previous central bank interventions.  

**Key Drivers and Market Imbalance**

1. The Dual Effect: The rapid spike in USD/JPY stems from a synergy of two factors: the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve (with the market pricing in another rate hike) and the Bank of Japan's adherence to an ultra-loose monetary policy—compounded by the simple fact that the BoJ meeting has passed.
2. Yen Lags Behind the Pair: The JPY index has declined less than USD/JPY has risen. Across other cross-currency pairs, the Japanese currency’s weakness appears more moderate.

**Distance to Key Thresholds:**

1. USD/JPY needs to move up by just **\~1.62%** to reach the levels of the September 2 intervention.
2. The JPY index needs to drop by another **\~3%** to hit its corresponding low—meaning the yen overall ***has not yet fallen to the levels where previous major interventions took place***.

Does this mean the Bank of Japan won't intervene at current JPY index levels? Unfortunately, no. ***Micro-interventions remain a distinct possibility*** at these figures to smooth out volatility.  
  
However, if the JPY index declines to the key levels seen ***on July 30 and September 2, the probability of a major intervention reaches its peak.***  
During the press conference, the BoJ Governor emphasized that sharp exchange rate fluctuations are a key concern for the regulator, as they quickly translate into imported inflation. This signals that the authorities ***will likely continue executing interventions***—either independently during ***holidays*** and ***low-liquidity trading sessions***, or jointly with the U.S. Department of the Treasury, as seen recently.